A Year In Review
It’s almost time to call 2019 to a close, so I thought I’d scan through my charts and bring you 10 of my favourite from this year.
If you’ve still yet to “make it” in trading or just about to turn that corner, these charts might be just what you need to convince yourself that technical analysis done the right way does work. It may even give you a new found optimism for your trading journey in 2020!
Wait a few seconds for the charts to load, then click the play button to see how the trades panned out. Study the charts, make notes and see if you can find similar examples on your own charts.
1. EUR/USD Macro View 9th February 2019
The first chart I’m going to show you wasn’t a trade, but has served as my macro view of this pair for all of 2019.
Even if you are trading the lower timeframes, you should always know what the higher timeframes are doing on any given asset.
This weekly chart of the EUR/USD was very clearly bearish after the first triangle breakdown. Then we had a second triangle breakdown and retest.
When this pair hit the first demand zone, it was highly likely it would bounce. After that, the old support line (in white) became resistance.
The obvious next target was the lower demand (indicated by my arrow) – it doesn’t look it on this chart, but that’s 300 pips lower!
2. EUR/USD Bull Trap Setup, 20th March 2019
A classic trap setup in line with my higher timeframe bias. The market runs the stops at the red line into a higher supply zone.
Bad luck if you were short at first supply, but here’s your 2nd chance to walk away with a profit.
3. Dow Jones Stoprun Into Supply And Reverse, 21st March 2019
I mention the “V” shaped pattern a lot. In this example we had a massive V shape pointing towards equal highs. Considering this, it was highly likely the stops would be run, followed by a reversal at supply above.
My arrows show the expected path.
4. USD/JPY Short Trap Setup, 15th April 2019
In this trade, I was looking for the market to run the stops and then reverse at weekly supply. This trade actually went a lot further than I expected!
Notice how the market put in equal highs (the red line) so it could run the stops into supply before promptly reversing.This is a little trick Mr Market plays again and again.
5. Natural Gas Bear Channel Short, May 23rd 2019
This is about as simple as it gets. A Bear Channel into supply with a smaller supply zone to short a pullback. The lows were a natural target, but it went even further.
6. USDCHF A Chat With Mr Market, August 3rd 2019
I’ve included this chart, not as a trade, but an example of when to stand aside.
The market came to rest at the trendline of a very obvious descending wedge. Novices will be tempted to buy here, as instructed by their textbooks. But my internal conversation went a bit like this:
Mr Market: “I’ll just sit here for a while, your move next buddy”.
Me “Nah! You’re alright mate”.
The giveaway was at the top of the chart. The market had spiked the prior highs (white dotted line) and made a sharp V reversal. Taking this into account, the chart was looking extremely bearish before even arriving at that wedge.
7. Monero (XMR/USD) Long Demand At A Key Level, August 6th 2019
We couldn’t have a review without looking at Cryptos!
Here’s a chart I put out for the privacy coin, Monero. Note the confluence of demand and the key level which I call a Price Pivot Zone (PPZ). The target was the next PPZ above.
You can learn more about PPZ’s here in this blog.
8. S&P 500 Ping Pong And Great Confluence, October 3rd 2019
Sometimes the market likes to play Ping Pong with supply and demand zones.
Grab a bat, buy at demand and sell at supply.
Selling at supply was your most probable option here because of the confluence with a very clear key level.
This chart is also a reminder to have a clear profit target and not to let emotions of greed take hold. You can see once the market hit the target, it turned right back around again.
9. Bitcoin Sitting Ducks, October 8th 2019
Whenever the market forms a range for a long period of time, you can bet your bottom dollar there are traders stuck long and short.
The longer the traders are stuck “in jail”, the more likely the market will whipsaw and take out the stops on both sides of the range.
That’s exactly what happened here on Bitcoin – my arrows predicted stops would be taken out both sides of the range.
It’s also worth noticing weekly demand was getting weaker after multiple tests.
10. WTI Crude Oil Short, November 18th 2019
This is one I put out on my private feed.
The key takeaways here are 1) The stophunt of the prior highs into higher timeframe supply (yellow box), 2) The breakdown below the cyan coloured line which indicated a change in market structure.
Well that’s it for 2019!
I hope you’ve enjoyed this blog, my Twitter feed and the charts I publish as much as I have in bringing them to you.
Wishing you a very Merry Christmas and a healthy, happy and prosperous New Year!
Supply & Demand Course On Udemy
If you would like to learn more about my strategy include advanced supply & demand concepts, how the smart money manipulates the market, and how to apply these concepts to Forex, Stock Indices, Commodities and Crypto Currencies, then head on over to my Udemy course.
Find out more here: https://www.udemy.com/course/professional-trading-with-institutional-supply-demand/
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